carlo.

MONTE CARLO FORECASTING

Your finish date and budget — with the odds.

Turn best, likely and worst-case estimates into a range of dates and costs, so you know how likely your target is before you commit to it.

  1. 01

    Start with three estimates.

    Give each task a best, likely and worst case for duration and cost. Beta-PERT sampling is the default; triangular and uniform are available.

  2. 02

    Connect the schedule.

    Sum tasks in sequence, or add dependencies so the critical path sets the finish. A criticality index shows how often each task controls the end date.

  3. 03

    Read the range.

    See P50, P80 and P95 finish dates and costs on a histogram and S-curve. Enter a target to get its probability, or pick a confidence level to get the date.

  4. 04

    Decide what to change.

    Sensitivity analysis ranks the tasks and risks that move the result. Save scenarios, compare them side by side, and re-run as new information arrives.

START YOUR FIRST FORECAST

Stop guessing the deadline.
Forecast it.

Bring your task list. Leave with a date and budget you can defend.

Get started with Carlo