carlo.

Monte Carlo forecasting for project managers

Know when your project will finish.
And what it will cost.

Carlo simulates your project 10,000 times from your estimates and risks.
Get a date and budget you can commit to — and the odds of hitting them.

Get started with Carlo See a sample forecast

✓ Start from a spreadsheet or the sample project✓ No statistics background needed

Carlo product previewSample data · Overview & Simulation
Website launch · Overview

Your forecast · updated from the latest simulation

Commit to 51 days and £58,000 — you'll land at or under it 80% of the time.

Your most-likely plan is 42 days / £48,500, but plans that ignore uncertainty are usually a coin flip or worse. The gap — 9 days and £9,500 — is the buffer to set aside as contingency.

Issues requiring attention

Current problems requiring action now; future uncertainty stays in the risk register.

No active issues.

Plan vs forecast

Each bar adds realism: your most-likely guess, the PERT-weighted average, then the simulated P80 you can commit to.

Most-likely plan
42 days
PERT expected
45 days
Simulated P80
51 days
Most-likely plan
£48,500
Simulated P80
£58,000

Top risks

Ranked by probability × impact.

12Supplier lead timesMitigate
9Approval delaysMitigate

Confidence & exposure

Where the plan stands against your target and open risks.

80%
Chance of finishing within
51 days

Sample project. Switch between Overview and Simulation to explore the forecast.

FOR THE PEOPLE WHO KEEP PROJECTS MOVING

Project managersDelivery teamsConsultantsPMOs

HOW IT WORKS

Three steps to a date you can commit to.

  1. 01

    Add your estimates.

    Give each task a best, likely and worst case for time and cost. Paste from a spreadsheet, import a CSV, or review an AI-drafted plan.

  2. 02

    Run the simulation.

    Carlo plays out your project 10,000 times, sampling every task and quantified risk, to build the full range of finish dates and costs.

  3. 03

    Commit with confidence.

    Read your P50, P80 and P95 dates and budgets, check the odds of hitting a target, and see how much contingency to add.

BEYOND THE FORECAST

Everything that moves the date, in one place.

Risks, progress and decisions feed the same model, so the forecast stays honest.

01 /

See what drives the date.

Sensitivity analysis and the critical path show which tasks and risks move the finish. Save scenarios and compare them side by side.

SensitivityCritical pathScenarios
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02 /

Price your risks in.

Give a risk a probability and an impact, and it joins the simulation. See its exposure as expected delay and cost.

Risk registerEMVExpected delay
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03 /

Keep the forecast current.

Track progress and actual cost, log change requests, and apply reviewed meeting actions. Re-run the forecast when the plan changes.

Earned valueChange requestsMeeting-to-plan
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04 /

Report without the busywork.

Export status reports, charters and registers as PDF or CSV, and see every project's health on one portfolio page.

Status reportPortfolioCSV · PDF · ZIP
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NEW TO MONTE CARLO?

You don’t need to know the maths.

If you can give a best, likely and worst case for each task, Carlo does the rest. P80 simply means 80% of simulated outcomes finished on or before that date. It’s a forecast from your inputs, not a guarantee.

Read the FAQs

START YOUR FIRST FORECAST

Stop guessing the deadline.
Forecast it.

Bring your task list. Leave with a date and budget you can defend.

Get started with Carlo